All bulls want for Christmas this holiday season is to push Bitcoin price higher and prevent a further downtrend back into a full-blown bear market.
But unless Bitcoin price can reclaim key support at $7,400, bullish crypto investors are going to have a bad Christmas, according to one crypto analyst.
Bitcoin Price Must Reclaim $7,400 Support Or Risk The Naughty List
At the close of October, Bitcoin price was trading above well above $9,000 following a news-driven short-squeeze that caused the first-ever cryptocurrency to set its third-largest single-day gain in its history, pushing the price of the asset from support at $7,400 to as high as $10,500.
But before November could close, the leading crypto asset by market cap had fallen nearly a third in price, to $6,500 at its recent local low. Now, with December in full swing and the holidays around the corner, bulls are left wondering if they’ll get the thing they’ve wished most for this year: bullish Bitcoin.
According to one crypto analyst, $7,400 – the level that triggered the massive impulse rally – represents a key support level, now acting as resistance, that must be reclaimed by bulls for a chance to get their Christmas wish.
The Ghost of Crypto Christmas: Past, Present, and Future
Markets are cyclical, and according to legendary trader William Delbert Gann, tops and bottoms typically occur around the months of November, December, January, February, April and July.
Bitcoin price topped out in December 2017, later forming a V-shaped bottom in February 2018. In November 2018, Bitcoin broke down below $6,000, eventually bottoming in December 2018 at $3,100.
In 2019, Bitcoin broke out in April to later top out in July. The crypto asset experienced another massive drop in November of this year, and could once again be looking to find a bottom this current month of December.
Last year, Bitcoin price bottomed out by December 15, and rallied nearly 20% by Christmas from the low it set, giving bulls a bit of relief on Christmas Day.
This year, Bitcoin is heading into the holidays once again falling, teetering on the edge of support at $7,400. And until bulls reclaim this level, Bitcoin could be stuck in a continued downtrend for the foreseeable future, and head into 2020 and the upcoming halving a lot more bearish than anyone would have expected.
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According to the crypto asset’s stock-to-flow model alone, Bitcoin should be trading upwards near $55,000 per BTC come May 2020 when the asset reaches its pre-coded halving, where miners see the block reward cut in half. Each halving is typically considered a massively bullish event, due to miners selling less and less Bitcoin into the market.